Summary of the Situation in the Operational Zone 26 November 2014

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According to our insiders, the quantity of troops in unmarked uniforms arriving in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions has increased in the second half of the November.  Unlike the terrorist militia of the DNR and LNR who prefer to adorn themselves with striped ribbons and various chevrons with emblems of Novorossiya and other unrecognized republics, these new soldiers look like regular troops belonging to the armed forces of the Russian Federation

These military units are being located to the second line of defence, the first line being occupied by local militias and terrorists.  According to our expert Irakli Komaxidze, troops of the Eastern military district of the Russian Federation were transferred to the territory of Ukraine. Such a seemingly irrational step by the Russian military as the movement of units from the Far East can be attributed to a lack of manpower and resources available from the Western, Southern and Central military Districts.

Another possible reason for the transfer of units from the east is the psychological factor. One of veterans of the first Chechen company told us: … «in the optical sight it is easier to look at the enemy who is different from you in the eye shape, language, skin colour and customs. It is not the same as the Slavonian with which you have blood ties». Maybe the Russian military leaders are guided by the same principle sending Buryats, Tuvinians, Dahestanis and other nationalities to fight in Ukraine.

The termination of funding to the occupied regions by the Ukrainian Government has provoked a situation of public outrage of the local population towards the militants. This new hardship has also catalysed the formation of underground initiatives to fight for social rights, and even stimulated resistance through the partisan groups. Taking into consideration the fact that the economy of the occupied region is destroyed, and the Russian Federation has its own economic problems, so the separatist forces may initiate attacks against the Ukrainian troops to divert attention from social problems which have come to the fore after the Minsk agreements.

If you look at the development of the war from April this year, the successful offensive operations of the enemy in August and September forced the Ukrainian authorities to make new arrangements with the terrorists and their puppeteers from Russia. Therefore we should not discard the possibility of a transition to the active phase of the offensive in order to try and force Ukraine to make economic concessions to the occupied territories.

We observe movement of enemy armored convoys towards Komsomolske and Telmanove. The fact suggests the possibility of attack to the north of Mariupol. The scenario of possible actions remains here unchanged. Stirring up of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the occupied Crimea may indicate a preparation of a breakthrough towards the mainland of Ukraine or could be a consequence of the continuation of “muscle flexing”.

Over the past days the activity of militants around Debaltseve has increased. For several days in a row they shelled the headquarters of the sector. There is an increase of the enemy power in Yenakijeve, Karsnyi Luch and in the Pervomaisk — Alchevsk direction. The facts suggest the possible preparation of the offensive with the aim to create a pocket around Debaltseve.

As for Donetsk, the attack upon Marinka becomes unlikely because the attack group of the militants was virtually destroyed in the area of DZTO (Donetsk Machine Building Plant, 47°55’37″N 37°38’46″E), which somewhat foiled their plans. However, this directions should not be ignored, considering the flow of military equipment to Donetsk.

One of the key dangers is the likelihood of troops being brought from the territory of the Russian federation along the P22 highways from Millerovo (Russia) towards Shchastya (Luhansk Oblast). This is possibility is highlighted by the renewed bombardment of the Ukrainian troops from the Russian side of the border, as well as repeated crossing of the border near Krasna Talivka by the Russian aviation. Such a thrust is the probably the only way for the enemy to capture Shchastya (noting that it is geographically protected in the south by the Seversky Donets River).

We can also note that there is a constant flow of heavy military equipment moving from the direction of Izvaryne via Kransodon.

The leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics are trying to legalize the “right to strike” of the Russian troops from Crimea and the territory of the Russian Federation, by stirring up the situation with claims of a humanitarian catastrophe in Donbas. They continue by all means to provoke the situation with call to the Kremlin for Putin to send the troops!

Update November 27, 2014: after publication of the material, we received a message from one of our readers in the Luhansk Oblast, which confirms that the militants are trying to provoke a humanitarian catastrophe: “The militants declared to the residents of Stanytsia Luhanska that since December 1st they ban the import of products from Stanytsia to Luhansk. They probably want to provoke a riot of the villagers against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because the residents of Stanytsia mainly live off the sale of agricultural production to Luhansk and the Rostov Oblast”.

 

The map has not changed since the last update.

 

The material was prepared by the military analyst of the InformNapalm team Artem Vasylenko, and the coordinator, military correspondent Roman Burko.