Оn the 30 of October the Russian military forces continue to be accumulated on the territory of Ukraine. For instance today MRLS convoys were noticed moving towards Donetsk. Convoys were also noticed in Makiivka, Snizhne, Antratsyt. Besides, one of the insiders informed about the arrival an MRLS “Smerch” to Donetsk. As long as the location area of these systems allows them to reach any point in Donetsk region this increases the terrorists’ possibilities of causing target effects.
It is also ought to be noted the arrival of complex C 300 launching systems in Petrovskyi district of Donetsk. Therefore the city of Donetsk is ready “to hold defence” in case of Ukrainian forces “advance”, which broadly announced by the militants in regards to their “elections”. Let’s remind that the markings on the terrorist vehicles similar to the markings of fast (prompt) identification used by ATO forces vehicles, and changed outfits having Ukrainian marks of distinction have been noticed repeatedly. It is unlikely that terrorists perform “masquerade” and this sign of intelligence can be considered as the definite signal of currently prepared provocations and sabotage attacks against civilians, aimed at blaming ATO forces as if carrying genocide against “Russian speaking population”. We have already written about “surprise operability checks” performed by terrorists at the western outskirts of Donetsk.
The prediction about the preparation of terrorist campaign against Artemivsk gets confirmation. One of signs is the accumulation of a large amount of manpower and military equipment in Alchevsk. There are cancelled classes in schools from the 31th of October. Also the terrorist movement noticed to the direction of the 31st checkpoint. The enemy tries to align the fighting line, as we wrote about this in the previous summary.
The attacks in the direction of Shchastya are the most likely diversionry to take attention off the main areas, as it was the case with Ilovaisk. So I would like to suggest to some reporters before writing anything to think twice and not to panic ahead of time.
Directions of major attacks which we highlighted yesterday remain of current interest. But there are additional clarifications related to the movement of the Russian large amphibious ships in Sevastopol. Our opinion it is not likely that they will be used for operations from the sea to attack Mariupol. It is more like the marines will disembark in Berdyansk or in Yalta (village in the Pervomaiskyi District of Donetsk region). Why? Look closely at the map and see that these territories are far in the sea, and they are more convenient base than Mariupol for landing of marines. But the actions of the Russian side are sometimes irrational, so let’s not cast away the alternate threat. There is also a possibility of the support from the Crimea the offensive from the sea. In such a case, we need look for resolute opposition to marine paratroopers near Henichesk.
According to our sources in Sevastopol in the end of November the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is waiting for the first amphibious assault ship Vladivostok (de la Classe BPC Mistral) which will be relocated to the 14th stage in the Holland Bay.
Will be the Sevastopol amphibious assault ship replaced by the Vladivostok amphibious assault ship in the 30th Division of surface ships (the 197 Brigade of assault ships) or the Vladivostok will be on a “business trip” till the moment the Sevastopol arrives is unknown. Probably no decisions are made yet. At least according to information circulating among the Russian troops in Sevastopol, the amphibious assault ship instead of the Pacific Fleet will be put to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
And the last time violation of the air space by the Russian aircrafts increased. Many experts point the date of the possible conflict escalation beginning – 2-4th of November, at once after fake elections in LPR/DPR. Besides at the 12th of November in USA Senate hearings on supplying Ukraine by weapon begins. Will Putin decide on reckless blitzkrieg? Feel free to make conclusions yourself. Anyway psychologists are telling that Putin has maniac desire to enter the history. There are two ways for it – to make something extremely good (it will not work already) or something bad: people still remember the man who burned Rome, the same as we still remember Hitler. As old soviet cartoon song says “It is impossible to get glory by doing good things”. All direct and indirect signs show that full score conflict becomes more and more real. But I would not panic now – many decisions including global decisions changes every minute, as quantity of variables are growing in this task. We should be ready for the worst and hope for the best.
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Material is prepared by military expert of InformNapalm group Artem Vasylenko and group coordinator, military correspondent – Roman Burko.
Translated by Roman Vlasov and Eugenia Zlamanuk.