As at October 31, 2014, the Russian Federation continues to build up its forces in the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. At that we increasingly receive reports that militants have BM-30 “Smerch” multiple rocket launchers (one of the identified places of deployment is the warehouse of the “Dominion” Trade House in Donetsk; it is located 84.5 km away from the headquarters of Ukrainian military in Kramatorsk), BM-27 “Uragan” multiple rocket launcher systems (deployed to Horlivka, former railway station “Promyvochna”, 48 km away from Ukrainian emplacements). Our observers also detected movement of S-300 (NATO reporting name is SA-10 Grumble) long range surface-to-air missile systems (one of the identified places of deployment is the warehouse of the “Dominion” Trade House in Donetsk). If those S-300 systems are of S-300PMU-1 modification (NATO reporting name is SA-20 Gargoyle), they greatly complicates application of tactical aviation very difficult in the entire crisis region.
We observe mass rotation of personnel of militant groupings, at that local “militia” is replaced with Russian servicemen. For example, in Olenivka the majority of personnel standing at checkpoints belongs to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In Petrovskyi district of Donetsk over the past three days the local militants disappeared; the locals confirm availability of many Russian servicemen. It is most likely that the Russian soldiers replace out-of-control militants. There is a high probability of deployment of a frontline control center in the area of the spoil tip of the “Chekist” mine (47°58’14,89″N, 37°34’23,95″E — unfinished military object). This is confirmed by cordoning off the village of the mine and deployment of communications in the area of Markina Street.
It should also be noted that there is an increase of personnel and armored vehicles in Alchevsk, Bryanka, Perevalsk, Horlivka, Yenakijeve settlements, and formation of reserves in Rovenky, Antratsyt, Snizhne, Krasnyi Luch.
We observe accumulation of the attack forces in the area of Telmanove, Pervomaiske, Krasnopillya, and deployment of field hospitals in that area. Because the part of the E-58 highway in the area of Samsonove-Bezimenne is blocked, we can make a conclusion of presence of enemy armored vehicles there.
Diversionary groups of the enemy were observed in the area of Kostiantynivka (the locals reported of firing of small arms in the evening of October 30), Debaltseve (groups of snipers arrived there to destroy gunners of Ukrainian artillery), Mariupol.
Thus, the combined forces of the Russian Federation and LPR and DPR terrorist organizations are ready to a full-scale attack in several directions.
Supposedly, the primary directions of attacks will be:
- Group “А”: Olenivka-Dokuchajevsk-Volnovakha (its mission is to cut off the supply routes of the ATO forces in the area of Starohnativka and join the groups “B” and “C” in the area of Volnovakha, then advance upon Vuhledar along the T-0509 highway; join with the attack group “E” in order to encircle the ATO grouping in the area of Kostiantynivka and Novomykhailivka.
- Group “B”: Komsomolske-Starohnativka-Donskoye (the mission is to split the group of the ATO forces in the area of Starohnativka and then join the groups “A” and “C” in the area of Volnovakha.
- Group “C”: Telmanove-Hranytne-Donskoye. The mission is to split the ATO grouping in the area of Starohnativka, join the groups “A” and “B” to create the attack group, which will attack towards Donskoye-Kirovske-Maloyanisol-Respublika, support of the group “D” on the right flank.
- Group “D”: Krasnoarmiiske-Talakivka-Volodarske-Manhush; the mission is to cut off the supply routes of the ATO forces in Mariupol and gain control over the E-58 highway.
- Group “E”: Donetsk-Marinka-Kurahove; the mission is to get into the rear of the grouping of the ATO forces in Kostiantynivka and Novomykhailivka in order to prevent an attack on the flank of the group “A”; then advance upon Vuhledar with the aim to encircle the grouping of the ATO forces in the area of Kostiantynivka and Novomykhailivka.
- Group “F”: Spartak-Avdiivka-Ocheretyne (the mission is to capture the Donetsk airport and prepare conditions for a successful attack from Horlivka towards Dzerzhynsk)
- Groups “G.1” (Horlivka-Svitlodarsk-Artemivsk), “G2” (Pervomaisk-Popasna-Artemivsk), “H” (Horlivka-Dzerzhynsk-Kostiantynivka); the mission is to straighten the front line in the north direction with the aim to retain control over the T0504 frontage highway to cut off the supply routes of the ATO grouping in the area of Debaltseve, formation of the jump-off line for the offensive towards Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
- Group “I”: Bryanka-Pervomaisk-Lysychansk (confirmed with shelling of Hirske during the artillery preparation, and observed movement towards the checkpoint #31). The mission is to gain control over Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, then develop the offensive upon Novoaidar with the aim to cut off the supply routes of the ATO grouping in Shchastya.
- North-East: offensive of the enemy upon Shchastya can be considered impossible in this situation because Severskiy Donets river, which divides the Luhansk Oblast into two parts, is a pretty good defense line. This is why the primary direction of attack will be the attack of the Group “F”; the purpose of that attack will be to capture Lysychansk and Severodonetsk with the aim to control the crossings over the water obstacles with subsequent development of the offensive towards Novoaidar with the aim to cut off the communications of the ATO grouping in Shchastya.
The specified attacks will be supposedly preceded with shelling of Kramatorsk (possibly from BM-30 “Smerch”) and other settlements where the Headquarters of the sectors are located, with the aim to disrupt the control over the ATO forces.
The reason for the full-scale attack will probably be a powerful provocation, which will happen during the elections on November 2, 2014.
The signs of preparations for the provocation are: painting of the identification marks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian armored vehicles, as well as the announced rally of “Patriots of Ukraine” in Donetsk and Luhansk. Supposedly, densely populated districts of Donetsk and Luhansk will be shelled from the border area (long-range artillery and MLRS BM-21 “Grad” is located on the western outskirts of Donetsk — their deployment to a minimum distance from the contact line contradicts the logic). The similar pattern is observed in other settlements.
Thus, November 2 will become the checkpoint for the beginning of full-scale military operations by terrorists. However, the attack will begin supposedly on November 4 or 5 because the terrorists need to sum up the results of elections if their leaders want to pretend to look legitimate. After that the “legitimate” government of the newly created Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics will declare war on Ukraine. In this case, the Minsk agreements will lapse, and the Russian Federation will ally with the terrorists in the war. This will give the terrorists an opportunity to use tactical operational missile complexes in addition to what they have so far.
Rumors among the DPR fans in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk indirectly confirm the date of November 4/5. According to them, the DPR is planning to return to these settlements on those days.
The material was prepared basing on information from our insiders in the occupied territories and open source intelligence by: military analyst of the InformNapalm team Artem Vasylenko, military and political analyst of the InformNapalm team Timur Melik, military correspondent Roman Burko.
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