Summary of the Situation in the Operational Zone 26 November 2014

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According to our insiders, the quantity of troops in unmarked uniforms arriving in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions has increased in the second half of the November.  Unlike the terrorist militia of the DNR and LNR who prefer to adorn themselves with striped ribbons and various chevrons with emblems of Novorossiya and other unrecognized republics, these new soldiers look like regular troops belonging to the armed forces of the Russian Federation

These military units are being located to the second line of defence, the first line being occupied by local militias and terrorists.  According to our expert Irakli Komaxidze, troops of the Eastern military district of the Russian Federation were transferred to the territory of Ukraine. Such a seemingly irrational step by the Russian military as the movement of units from the Far East can be attributed to a lack of manpower and resources available from the Western, Southern and Central military Districts.

Another possible reason for the transfer of units from the east is the psychological factor. One of veterans of the first Chechen company told us: … «in the optical sight it is easier to look at the enemy who is different from you in the eye shape, language, skin colour and customs. It is not the same as the Slavonian with which you have blood ties». Maybe the Russian military leaders are guided by the same principle sending Buryats, Tuvinians, Dahestanis and other nationalities to fight in Ukraine.

The termination of funding to the occupied regions by the Ukrainian Government has provoked a situation of public outrage of the local population towards the militants. This new hardship has also catalysed the formation of underground initiatives to fight for social rights, and even stimulated resistance through the partisan groups. Taking into consideration the fact that the economy of the occupied region is destroyed, and the Russian Federation has its own economic problems, so the separatist forces may initiate attacks against the Ukrainian troops to divert attention from social problems which have come to the fore after the Minsk agreements.

If you look at the development of the war from April this year, the successful offensive operations of the enemy in August and September forced the Ukrainian authorities to make new arrangements with the terrorists and their puppeteers from Russia. Therefore we should not discard the possibility of a transition to the active phase of the offensive in order to try and force Ukraine to make economic concessions to the occupied territories.

We observe movement of enemy armored convoys towards Komsomolske and Telmanove. The fact suggests the possibility of attack to the north of Mariupol. The scenario of possible actions remains here unchanged. Stirring up of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the occupied Crimea may indicate a preparation of a breakthrough towards the mainland of Ukraine or could be a consequence of the continuation of “muscle flexing”.

Over the past days the activity of militants around Debaltseve has increased. For several days in a row they shelled the headquarters of the sector. There is an increase of the enemy power in Yenakijeve, Karsnyi Luch and in the Pervomaisk — Alchevsk direction. The facts suggest the possible preparation of the offensive with the aim to create a pocket around Debaltseve.

As for Donetsk, the attack upon Marinka becomes unlikely because the attack group of the militants was virtually destroyed in the area of DZTO (Donetsk Machine Building Plant, 47°55’37″N 37°38’46″E), which somewhat foiled their plans. However, this directions should not be ignored, considering the flow of military equipment to Donetsk.

One of the key dangers is the likelihood of troops being brought from the territory of the Russian federation along the P22 highways from Millerovo (Russia) towards Shchastya (Luhansk Oblast). This is possibility is highlighted by the renewed bombardment of the Ukrainian troops from the Russian side of the border, as well as repeated crossing of the border near Krasna Talivka by the Russian aviation. Such a thrust is the probably the only way for the enemy to capture Shchastya (noting that it is geographically protected in the south by the Seversky Donets River).

We can also note that there is a constant flow of heavy military equipment moving from the direction of Izvaryne via Kransodon.

The leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics are trying to legalize the “right to strike” of the Russian troops from Crimea and the territory of the Russian Federation, by stirring up the situation with claims of a humanitarian catastrophe in Donbas. They continue by all means to provoke the situation with call to the Kremlin for Putin to send the troops!

Update November 27, 2014: after publication of the material, we received a message from one of our readers in the Luhansk Oblast, which confirms that the militants are trying to provoke a humanitarian catastrophe: “The militants declared to the residents of Stanytsia Luhanska that since December 1st they ban the import of products from Stanytsia to Luhansk. They probably want to provoke a riot of the villagers against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because the residents of Stanytsia mainly live off the sale of agricultural production to Luhansk and the Rostov Oblast”.

 

The map has not changed since the last update.

 

The material was prepared by the military analyst of the InformNapalm team Artem Vasylenko, and the coordinator, military correspondent Roman Burko.

November 17, 2014 Weekly Summary by InformNapalm group

17kartaAt the end of last week a few significant changes happened, which in one way or another could affect the balance of the confrontation:

  1. According to the field reports, the Russian servicemen captured by Ukrainian security services (Evgeniy Tur and Alexander Bondaruk) provided the information about gradual reorganization within the militant groups, and about cleanup operations and «disappearances» of unwanted or uncontrollable individual militants or even their whole groups, conducted by the Russian armed forces, under the protection of the Russian special services. This “restructuring” has as its goal the creation of a unified army of Novorossiya, strictly controlled by the Russian security services. So far these activities have resulted in the worsening of the situation caused by periodic skirmishes among gangs, Cossack groups, DPR, and LPR groups. In such circumstances we foresee increased deployment of the regular Russian military, which will replace the poorly disciplined gangs in the Donbas.
  2. Over the past week, the guerrilla movement in the Donbas has become more active. Previously, we saw isolated attacks, but now you can see the tendency of increasing activity against the separatist and Russian forces by locals living in the occupied zone.

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The operational information of the group «InformNapalm» оn November, 6

0611картаAlmost all of the directions that we specified in the general summary for November 1 have been confirmed (see more details here: https://burkonews.info/general-summary, and the map is still relevant). Our efforts in writing that summary weren’t for nothing: as far as we know, it was distributed among the top officials and helped to make correct conclusions.

Today, on November 6, some of the units of the Russian Armed Forces in Rostov-on-Don were placed on high alert. Also, the enemy attempted an attack in the direction of Donetsk-Marinka. The ATO forces, supported by the artillery of the 79th Airmobile Brigade, repelled the assault. The enemy suffered significant losses. In addition, advances in the directions of Volnovakha and Lysychansk were observed. The enemy is also accumulating the forces for attacks on Dzerzhynsk and Artemivsk.

The situation at the Donetsk airport and in Avdiivka is very difficult. Tactical missile launchers have been observed, as well as Russian drones, which were conducting reconnaissance of the ATO command posts. This confirms the high probability of attacks on the ATO command posts.

Throughout the week, large quantities of the Russian military equipment continued to arrive in Ukraine via Izvarine: in particular, the next major convoy of armored vehicles went through Krasnodon today.

All this could indicate that the Russian Federation is preparing for a full-scale invasion of the territory of Ukraine.

Don’t panic, we are ready for it!

Translated by: Victoria Field.

General Summary as at November 1, 2014 by the InformNapalm Group

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As at October 31, 2014, the Russian Federation continues to build up its forces in the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. At that we increasingly receive reports that militants have BM-30 “Smerch” multiple rocket launchers (one of the identified places of deployment is the warehouse of the “Dominion” Trade House in Donetsk; it is located 84.5 km away from the headquarters of Ukrainian military in Kramatorsk), BM-27 “Uragan” multiple rocket launcher systems (deployed to Horlivka, former railway station “Promyvochna”, 48 km away from Ukrainian emplacements). Our observers also detected movement of S-300 (NATO reporting name is SA-10 Grumble) long range surface-to-air missile systems (one of the identified places of deployment is the warehouse of the “Dominion” Trade House in Donetsk). If those S-300 systems are of S-300PMU-1 modification (NATO reporting name is SA-20 Gargoyle), they greatly complicates application of tactical aviation very difficult in the entire crisis region. Continue reading

Operational Summary for October 30 by the InformNapalm Team

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Оn the 30 of October the Russian military forces continue to be accumulated on the territory of Ukraine. For instance today MRLS convoys were noticed moving towards Donetsk. Convoys were also noticed in Makiivka, Snizhne, Antratsyt. Besides, one of the insiders informed about the arrival an MRLS “Smerch” to Donetsk. As long as the location area of these systems allows them to reach any point in Donetsk region this increases the terrorists’ possibilities of causing target effects.

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Operational Summary for October 29 by the InformNapalm Team

October, 30 may be the turning point in the slow conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. The ceasefire has allowed the terrorists to regroup their forces. Russian “military shops” resumed their work of providing combat equipment with increasing intensity. For the past two days alone, more than 300 vehicles were transferred from Russia to Ukraine. The main direction of movement goes via Antratsyt to Donetsk and towards Smila village and via Marynivka to Telmanove and Komsomolske. Transfer of military equipment was also noticed in the direction of Olenivka and Horlivka.

Approximate front lines and potential directions of attack

Approximate front lines and potential directions of attack

 

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Operational Situation as at September 25, 2014

Over the past few days we have got to know of at least 5 cases when negotiating groups of the local separatists came to emplacements of Ukrainian military in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions with additional requests under observation of truce. The local militants stated that they honored the agreements of the peace plan but as a result of that they had confrontations with Russian Cossacks and uniformed services (representatives of the Armed Forces, Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff, and Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation). Those representatives tried to force them to break the truce and perform provocative attacks. Because of this, the separatists asked Ukrainian military not to fire back and assured that “they will sort it out with the Don Cossacks, Chechens, as well as the feds who continue to provoke attacks”. Continue reading

The War in Donbas: Operational Situation in the Donetsk Region as at September 24, 2014

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On the back of the Minsk agreements, internecine clashes between militants get worse. Gangs that accept the peace agreements confront with the opponents objecting to the agreements accepted by the contact group of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

For example, as a result of the conflict, on the night from September 20 to September 21, onf of the groups of militants destroyed two cars with personnel of the other group with mortar fire. Continue reading

Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Summary for September 15, 2014

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In spite of the “armistice” the Russian mercenaries continued shelling Donetsk airport over the past 24 hours using heavy artillery. Meanwhile the facility remains under Ukrainian control.

The enemy is also attempting to reach the airport from the north. For this reason they gather forces in Panteleimonivka. An attack from this areas allows them address to issues: their desire to straighten the front line by dislodging the Ukrainian military from Verkhnotoretske, and secondly to get complete control over the Horlivka-Donetsk highway. Continue reading

Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Summary for September 13-14, 2014

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The Donetsk airport is still shelled with large calibre artillery and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Some eyewitnesses even speak of a tank attack. However, Ukrainian forces continue to hold the airport.

On September 13, there was an attempt to transfer terrorist forces from Horlivka to Donetsk. The terrorists attempted to use the E50 highway. It is possible that the attempt was aimed at reinforcing the attack on the airport from the north. This attempt was suppressed in the area of Krasnyi Partizan. Continue reading

Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine: Summary for September 12, 2014

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Military Operations

For the whole morning of September 12, the Russian-terrorists forces conducted maneuvers in the Petrovskyi district of the City of Donetsk in preparation for an attack on the airport. After firing heavy caliber guns towards Krasnohorivka, one of the guns was disabled from return fire from Ukrainian forces. It is believed that the vehicle chassis of the artillery piece has been damaged.

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Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine: Summary for the 11th September 2014

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The Kremlin style continues — one step forward, two steps back in observance of the requirements on the Minsk agreement. The Russian side is strenuously trying to disrupt the peace agreements while continuing the build-up and regrouping of its forces.

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Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine: Summary for the 7th September 2014

Карта07The third day of the ‘ceasefire’

The Situation Around Donetsk

Either the DNR and LNR have not heard that about the planned ceasefire or they disrespect their political leaders. In any event they continue to fight for the Donetsk airport. Despite the silence of the Ukrainian heavy artillery, the Russian terrorists use mortars, rocket systems GRAD and self-propelled guns NONA in full swing. From the territory of the chemical factory one of systems GRAD is constantly shelling the Donetsk airport. Continue reading

Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine Summary for the 4th September 2014

040914The Luhansk Conflict Zone

The Ukrainian military forces have had to withdraw from Lutuhyne and leave the area south of Luhansk. Basically the move can be considered as the correct decospom, considering the threat that the town of Shchastya is facing currently. The same situation applies to the settlement of Pobeda located in Novoaidar district. We should remember that a withdrawal from Shchastya opens the way for Russian military forces to Starobilsk and northwards towards Kharkiv Oblast. It is possible that the Russian troops being moved towards the border, in the direction of Valuiky (in Russia), will penetrate into Ukrainian territory in the area of Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast). Such a course of events will allow the enemy to excuse themselves, as though military forces have come from the Luhansk area, and that this cannot therefore be considered as an open invasion from Russia. However that is no more than our guess. As for the possibility of the terrorists’ activity in the direction of Starobilsk, we warned about that earlier. Continue reading

Terrorist War of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, Eastern Front: Summary for September 1, 2014

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Preface

Due to objective factors we have had to take a break in posting information and analytical data regarding the course of “Anti-terrorist operation in Donbas”. Starting from August 21 we decided to call a spade a spade, namely that this is a TERRORIST WAR OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AGAINST UKRAINE. Continue reading